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Issue #1 · Election week edition

The gas pump doesn’t care who you vote for

Two from the President, one from a Democrat. Same rules for every side, with every source linked.

Published
Issue
No. 1
Read time
4 min
Sources
12 linked

By the TidyReport desk · Free to read, no signup needed. Also on Substack.

The pump is the most honest thing in America

There’s a moment at the gas station that everyone knows.

You squeeze the handle and the numbers start spinning. The gallons go up slowly, and the dollars go up much faster. You stand there holding the nozzle like it’s a hostage negotiation, and you think, “Just stop at forty. Please. Stop at forty.”

It doesn’t stop at forty.

The pump has no opinion about politics. It doesn’t watch cable news and it has never been to a rally. It just tells you the number.

This week, a lot of people who have been to rallies will tell you numbers too. Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3, is Election Day. So, for our very first issue, we did what we promised we’d always do: we took the loudest claims about your wallet and walked them back to the receipts.

Two claims come from the President. One comes from a Democratic candidate.

Same rules for everyone. Let’s go.

The Receipt

Three claims, checked

Claim 1 of 3 · Groceries

“The prices for groceries have come way down”

Who said it: President Donald Trump, talking to reporters on Sept. 28, 2026. He has repeated versions of it at rallies since. (CNN)

What the data says: The government tracks grocery prices every month. It’s called “food at home” in the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • From January 2025 to September 2026, grocery prices rose about 3.3%, using seasonally adjusted figures. (BLS, series CUSR0000SAF11)
  • Over the past year, they rose about 1.8%. (BLS, CUUR0000SAF11)
  • From August to September, they dipped by less than a tenth of a percent. That’s real, but it’s a rounding error, not a comeback.

There is one genuine hero in this story: eggs. Egg prices are down about 37% since January 2025. (BLS, CUUR0000SEFH) Beef went the other way, up about 18%. (BLS, CUUR0000SEFC)

So if your entire diet is omelets, congratulations. You’re living in the economy he’s describing.

TidyReportWallet Receipt · Claim 1 of 3

“The prices for groceries have come way down.”

  • Said byPresident Trump
  • Groceries, Jan. 2025 to Sept. 2026+3.3%
  • Groceries, past year+1.8%
  • Eggs since Jan. 2025−37%
  • Beef since Jan. 2025+18%

Source: BLS Consumer Price Index

VerdictFalse
Verdict: FALSE. Some items got cheaper. Groceries overall did not “come way down.” They went up, just more slowly lately.

Claim 2 of 3 · Gas

Gas is cheaper now than under Biden and Obama

Who said it: President Trump at a rally in Perry, Georgia, on Oct. 24, 2026: “You’re still paying lower than (under) Biden and Obama.” (PolitiFact)

What the data says: We pulled the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly average price for regular gas. (EIA)

  • Latest week (Oct. 26, 2026): $4.27 a gallon.
  • Under President Obama, the weekly average never went above $3.97. Today’s price is higher than every single week of his presidency.
  • Under President Biden, gas peaked at $5.01 in June 2022. That’s higher than today, and that’s the part of the claim that holds up. But in only 13 of about 208 weeks of his term was gas more expensive than it is now. That’s about 6%.
  • For context: the week before the war with Iran began in late February, gas was $2.94.

Comparing today to Biden’s single worst summer is like saying, “I’m a great driver, I’ve only crashed into one house.”

TidyReportWallet Receipt · Claim 2 of 3

“You’re still paying lower than (under) Biden and Obama.”

  • Said byPresident Trump
  • Latest week, Oct. 26, 2026$4.27
  • Highest week under Obama$3.97
  • Peak under Biden, June 2022$5.01
  • Biden weeks pricier than now13 of ~208

Source: EIA weekly regular gasoline price

VerdictMisleading
Verdict: MISLEADING. It’s wrong about Obama. It’s true about Biden only if you compare today to his worst few months.

Claim 3 of 3 · Tariffs

Tariffs are “costing the average family $4,200”

Who said it: Christina Bohannan, the Democratic candidate for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, in a Des Moines Register candidate Q&A. (PolitiFact)

What the data says: Tariffs do cost households money. That part is real. The problem is how this number was built.

According to PolitiFact, her campaign added together two different estimates:

  • one covering 2025 and early 2026
  • one projecting the year ahead

Those two overlap, and the projection rested on a single month of data.

Here’s what independent analysts estimate for 2026:

Add up two years of costs and you land around $1,800 to $2,200. That’s real money. It’s also about half of $4,200.

TidyReportWallet Receipt · Claim 3 of 3

Tariffs are “costing the average family $4,200.”

  • Said byChristina Bohannan (D)
  • Claimed$4,200
  • Tax Foundation, 2026~$820
  • Yale Budget Lab, 2026~$1,100
  • Two years added up~$1,800–2,200

Sources: Tax Foundation, Yale Budget Lab, PolitiFact

VerdictMisleading
Verdict: MISLEADING. There’s a real cost underneath, but the headline number is inflated by double counting.

What this means for your wallet

  • Your paycheck is trailing prices. Over the past year, average hourly pay rose about 3.0% (BLS). Overall prices rose about 3.7% (BLS). If money feels tighter, you’re not imagining it.
  • Gas is the big squeeze. It’s well above where it was before the war began. When someone promises it will “come way down,” ask: when, and how?
  • Groceries are mixed. Eggs are cheaper and beef is much pricier. Buy where the deals are, not where the speeches are.
  • Tariffs cost you something, probably around $800 to $1,100 this year. That’s not nothing. It’s also not $4,200.
  • Anger is not a source. Not for the left, not for the right, not for your cousin’s group chat.

Before you go

Whoever you vote for tomorrow, and however you feel on Wednesday morning, your grocery bill will still be waiting for you.

Our job isn’t to tell you who to vote for. Our job is to make sure that when somebody talks about your money, you know whether they brought the receipt.

Thanks for reading our very first issue. If it helped, forward it to the friend who sends you screenshots with no sources. (Everyone has one. If you don’t, it might be you.)

See you next week. Bring snacks. They’re cheaper if they’re eggs.

— The TidyReport desk

Sources

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

  • Weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price: eia.gov weekly regular gasoline series (Oct 26, 2026: $4.269; Obama-era weekly max: $3.965; Biden-era max: $5.006 on June 13, 2022; Feb 23, 2026: $2.937; Jan 20, 2025: $3.109)

Independent estimates

Who said what